Looking Back at the 2011 NBA Draft: Biggest Steals and Surprising Busts

Looking back at the 2011 NBA Draft feels like revisiting a time capsule of basketball history—a draft class that defied expectations in ways we’re still talking about today. I remember watching it live, notebook in hand, thinking I had a pretty good read on how things would unfold. But as any seasoned observer knows, drafts rarely go according to script. This one, in particular, was a masterclass in unpredictability, delivering franchise-altering steals and head-scratching busts in almost equal measure. What fascinates me most, even now, is how certain players slipped through the cracks while others, hyped to the moon, never quite found their footing in the league. It’s a draft that reminds us why scouting is as much art as science.

When you examine the first round, it’s impossible not to start with Kyrie Irving going first overall to Cleveland. That pick made sense then and still holds up—Irving’s handles, scoring instincts, and clutch gene were evident from day one. But right after him? Derrick Williams at number two to Minnesota. I’ll admit, I was intrigued by his athleticism and versatility at Arizona, but I never bought into him as a surefire star. In hindsight, bouncing between six teams and averaging just 8.9 points per career game tells you everything about why he’s often labeled one of the bigger busts of this class. Then there was Jonas Valančiūnas at five to Toronto—a solid, reliable center, but not the game-changer some hoped for. The real drama, though, unfolded later. I vividly recall the buzz around Jimmer Fredette, taken tenth by Milwaukee (and traded to Sacramento). The college phenom from BYU had everyone talking, but his game never translated. He shot just 41.2% from the field in the NBA and struggled defensively—a classic case of a player who dominated in college but couldn’t adjust to the pros.

Now, let’s talk steals—because this draft had some absolute gems buried deep. Kawhi Leonard at 15th to Indiana (traded to San Antonio) is the obvious one, but I’ll never forget how many teams passed on him. I remember thinking his defensive potential was through the roof, but even I didn’t foresee him becoming a two-time Finals MVP and one of the best two-way players ever. Then there’s Jimmy Butler at 30th to Chicago. Talk about a grind—Butler went from a relatively unheralded prospect at Marquette to a six-time All-Star, and his work ethic is stuff of legend. But my personal favorite steal? Isaiah Thomas at 60th, the very last pick. Listed at just 5’9”, he defied every odd, making two All-Star teams and dropping 28.9 points per game in his prime season with Boston. That’s the kind of story that keeps us fans hooked—proof that heart and skill can outweigh draft position any day.

Of course, not every surprise was a pleasant one. Jan Veselý at six to Washington? He averaged 3.6 points over just 162 games before heading overseas. And Bismack Biyombo at seven to Sacramento (traded to Charlotte)—while he’s carved out a role as a defender, his offensive limitations have always held him back. But what stands out to me, reflecting on all this, is how much context matters. Take that quote from Belga, for instance: “I was really eyeing for it. Sabi ko nga sa mga nagma-manage, puwede ako Game Two. Pero meron na silang napili. Sabi ko, in case wala talaga, I can. In-ano ko naman sa oras eh. Kung babanga talaga sa oras na hindi ako aabot sa laro, hindi ko ‘yun iko-compromise.” It’s a reminder that behind every pick, there’s a human element—players managing expectations, teams weighing risks, and moments of uncertainty that can define careers. In the 2011 draft, that human element played out dramatically, with some guys seizing opportunities and others fading under pressure.

As I wrap this up, I can’t help but feel this draft class teaches us something timeless about basketball: value isn’t always where you expect it. The steals—Leonard, Butler, Thomas—have arguably had more collective impact than the top five picks outside of Irving. And the busts? They’re cautionary tales about overvaluing college hype or ignoring fit. From my perspective, the 2011 draft is a benchmark for evaluating talent, one I still reference when analyzing current prospects. It’s messy, unpredictable, and utterly compelling—a snapshot of the NBA’s endless capacity to surprise.